ABiz -> Acadiana Business FRI, FEB 25 11:40AM by Independent Weekly Staff

Economist Scott reverses job-loss prediction

Economist Loren Scott, who left us scratching our collective head when he predicted in September that the Lafayette metro would lose 3,800 jobs in the next two years, has changed course.

Reversing his fall prediction of a loss of 3,800 jobs for Lafayette over the next two years, Scott now expects a gain of 2,500 jobs over the same period, or an uptick of just under 1 percent each year. That's the message delivered earlier this week at an awards breakfast for top performers at Van Eaton & Romero Real Estate.

Scott admits he expected a bigger drop in employment following the BP oil spill. "The big layoffs didn't happen," he says. "In part I think it's because the workforce in the industry is aging. Operators realize that they can't replace that kind of experience quickly and decided to ride it out."

But he adds that with oil trading where it is today, job growth should be much more robust, in the 3-5 percent range. "To some degree, the losses are hidden. When oil is trading at $85-$90 a barrel, Lafayette and Houma should be rocking," he says, noting that Houma lost jobs throughout 2010, showing a small gain in December, and Lafayette numbers were down slightly. Still the new prognostication was welcome news to the room full of Realtors, who were celebrating VER's 2010 closed dollar volume of $378 million and 34 years in business.

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Comments (5)

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written by Chamber of Horrors , February 25, 2011 - 05:11 pm

CYA time but Scott could not bring himself to admit that he had been part of the big bamboozle that he and his 'for hire' colleagues were part of regarding the moratorium. When will the Greater Lafayette Chamber of Commerce start trying to walk back their role in the fear fest held at the Cajundome last summer?

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written by The Rally was a HOAX , February 25, 2011 - 06:06 pm

Those who put on the "Rally for Economic Survival" should be held accountable for "Talking down" our economy here locally - but we are resiliant and no matter how much gloom and doom they predicted - it never materialized. Thank goodness people are starting to admit that now. The Moritorium had little to no impact what so ever on jobs in Louisiana... Try as hard as they could those behind the "RALLY" scared the crap out of small business owners - all of us expecting gloom and doom... They were wrong. Will they be held accountable?

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written by Loon Watch , February 28, 2011 - 11:41 pm

If you think the moratorium had no effect, you are neither a business man nor very bright.

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written by Chris Manchin , March 01, 2011 - 12:45 am

@ Loon Watch... you're an idiot. I can tell because your user name is stupid.

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written by the original northsidian , March 10, 2011 - 08:00 pm

So, Scott was wrong? And some people actually paid to hear him?

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